>>> a week ago, republicans were worried that paul ryan could cost them congressional seats. now they're getting nervous that todd akin could dash their dreams of reclaiming the senate. the gop needs just a net gain of four seats to seize the majority in the upper house . according to the cook political report , ten seats are considered toss-ups, including the one akin is running for in missouri and senator scott brown 's seat in massachusetts. that may be one reason why brown quickly said quote, i believe representative akin's statement was so far out of bounds that he should resign the nomination for u.s. senate in missouri . this morning on msnbc, rnc chair reince priebus said akin n eeds to step aside .
>> everyone's on the same page and i think you've seen complete unity in the fact that he ought to get out of the race. we think we've got a better chance with someone else , obviously.
>> joining us now from washington, making his debut now appearance, a moment much of the western world has been waiting for, writer of "the fix" column in the " washington post ," msnbc contributor, chris cillizza .
>> can you say ratings spike?
>> ratings gold. ratings gold. this is a day we have been waiting for.
>> thank you for having me.
>> we did a long ideological analysis of todd akin and his positions and the implications for the gop but the real reason at the heart of all this back and forth between gop party elders and the akin campaign, the real reason for this outcry is because the gop wants a chance at the senate, is it not?
>> yeah. look, when todd akin won the primary earlier this month, republicans were not sort of overjoyed at that prospect. john bruener and sarah steelman were the other two candidates. both of them probably matched up better with claire mccaskill but the argument was claire mccaskill is a freshman senator running in a state that barack obama is going to lose. she's been an ardent, high profile defender of barack obama , and she had a personal private plane that she acknowledged she had not paid taxes on for some time. so you think add those things up, all todd akin had to do honestly is just don't appear in public between the day he won the primary and november 6 and he likely would have won the race. now, of course, you know, todd akin may not have come to this yet, but viewed purely from a political perspective, he just can't win. i know a lot of people are pointing to a poll that came out last night that showed the race virtually tied and it may well be today, but you have to realize most people do not follow this stuff as closely as we do, number one. so it takes more time to sink in with the electorate and number two, reince priebus, john cornyn , mitch mcconnell , scott brown , every other republican in the country has basically said this guy is unfit and needs to step down. i can guarantee you that if todd akin remains the nominee, claire mccaskill will use those quotes against todd akin in ads, not to mention the whole legitimate rape thing which is going to kill him among women in general. it's just not --
>> todd akin creates problems both in the missouri senate race and also for the national race insofar as david axelrod is now talking about the akin/ryan axis. there was analysis that claire mccaskill did her best or made her best effort to get todd akin to be her opponent in the race precisely because he was sort of the most outrageous and furthest right.
>> both claire mccaskill and the democratic senatorial campaign committee , the arm of the party that's aimed at electing democratic senators, spent lots of money, i think a total of $ 1.7 million on ads that basically said todd akin is very, very conservative, which in a republican primary , is a great thing because they try to pick their nominee. we have seen this happen before, i don't think we have ever seen it be so successful. i would argue, though, i know this is too political for some people, but in a way, claire mccaskill has succeeded too much in that if republicans are able to push todd akin off the ballot, almost anybody that they replace him with is going to have a better chance of beating claire mccaskill than todd akin currently has. in a way, i said to some of my friends, you guys woul d probably be better off saying absolutely nothing for awhile because you want todd akin as the nominee if you're claire mccaskill because again, like i said before, this is just not someone who is going to win a senate race. it's just not going to happen.
>> when you're looking at the battle, you definitely want your opponent to be riding a bloodied horse with arrows sticking out of its side.
>> he's not even on a horse anymore, though.
>> or just walking with a broken spear, as the case may be. john, we know that kelly ayotte and john mccain just added their names to the list of republicans who think todd akin should go the way of the dinosaur. this strategy, though, when we're talking about sort of getting the opponent you want on tap is something that harry reid masterfully employed in nevada with sharron angle and we see how these loony-tune senate candidates don't fare well in general elections .
>> sometimes the incumbent is able to do things to get the opponent they want. sometimes the republican party or democratic party , as the case may be, helps them on its own. it's now become kind of the rule in republican primary politics that the most conservative candidate wins. that's partly the influence of the tea party , partly the influence of the way the party in general has moved to the right. the most conservative candidate if they're well funded, as long as they're not broke, they win. the republican party has handed a lot of gifts over the last two cycles to the democratic party . i'll say one thing in addition on the missouri race. of all the people calling for akin to step down, the one who is not calling for him to step down but is effectively calling for him to step down, most important of all is karl rove , who until yesterday took the $ 847,000 ad by crossroads, that spent $ 5 million already in missouri , took the $ 847,000 ad buy he was going to make this week and canceled it, and there's no way that congressman akin can win a race, he's got all those arrows sticking in his side, can't win the race without money and a lot of money he was relying on was outside money coming into the state.
>> the vote is the conservative republican voters of missouri went for akin in the first place. what will happen when they pull this guy out of the puzzle and come up with one of the other two. how enthusiastic is the base going to be? you know, the thing about claire mccaskill , for all of her problems, she is a take no prisoners campaigner. she knows how to leverage these things. she's going to get a lot of money. the race is going to get some attention. and what is going to happen to the base of this party when they don't get their guy.
>> what's in it --
>> the thing that we should point out here, the one person in america who has been the most charitable towards akin, the one most sympathetic, the one to say he can decide in his own good time to stay in the race has been claire mccaskill because of course she wants him to stay in the race. she knows that if he is replaced and forced off, the replacement may be a stronger competitor than he is.
>> don't you think she just wants to respect the will of the republican right?
>> we still have mr. fix in washington. kurt raises a good point, which is what is in it for todd akin in terms of getting out?
>> kurt is right. even more so because todd akin is not ever been an establishment kind of guy, alex. it's not as though he thinks if i do this, the establishment, if i stay in the race, the establishment -- and i lose, the establishment won't take care of me down the line. this is a guy who the establishment recruited any number of people to run against him in hopes he wasn't the nominee. they recruited john bruener, a wealthy businessman, because they figured akin is not a good nominee for us. they pivoted once he won and said claire mccaskill is so damaged it doesn't matter but you're exactly right. it's why, you say how can the guy not get out, everyone is calling for him to get out. because there is a group of people around him who are saying let's run this apology ad, let's do a poll or two and let's see what happens. there's no reason for us to get out now. even though it seems patently obvious to all of us this guy can't win, he owes nothing to these people. these people have not funded him, though john is right, in addition to american crossroads, the national republican senatorial committee has pulled out all of the ad money they had reserved. todd akin is not a good fund-raiser. missouri is not a cheap state because st. louis and kansas city are expensive media markets. he would be being outspent 10, 11 or 12 to one by claire mccaskill if he stays in the race because he's not a guy that you're going to write a check to. he wasn't before and there's no way you're writing a check to him at this point.
>> claire mccaskill might.
>> you know, chris, with the republican party proving you can sit on the issue, forcible rape and legitimate rape and you can continue to bandy that about in certain corners and really not see any fallout from that as they have been doing for decades. maybe he can hold on to this.
>> one thing i would say, i had a lot of republicans, when todd akin won, i said look, this makes this race more competitive. i still think mccaskill is going to win. they said you're making the mistake saying that todd akin is equivalent to sharron angle , someone who is not at all ready. this is somebody who has been in, you know, spent time in the u.s. house , he was in the missouri state legislature before. are his views more conservative, maybe, but this is a guy who knows his way around. i will tell you those same people are not espousing those views now because they have seen that this guy has exposed himself as someone who is just, he carries views that are outside the mainstream, even the conservative mainstream , i would argue, of the republican party and can't win. so he may not be as high profile as
>> chris cillizza , our time together was short but wonderful. i hope we can entice you back.
>> thank you for having me.
>> a little bit country, a little bit rock. take it
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